First, the "clean alternative" to the traditional energy to become a general trend
Energy is a strategic resource of the country and an important material basis for the socio-economic development of a country. In recent decades, the scarcity of traditional energy sources such as coal and oil and the environmental and climatic problems caused by the use of traditional energy have seriously hampered China's sustainable development. “Clean and replace†traditional energy sources to ensure the sustainable development of our country.
The development of clean renewable energy such as biomass energy is one of the key directions for the development of alternative energy sources in China. Since the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" in China, the state has successively promulgated the "Renewable Energy Law", "Renewable Energy Medium and Long-term Development Plan", "National Energy Science and Technology" Twelfth Five-Year Plan", and "Biomass Energy Technology Development" Five "special planning" and other laws and regulations, China is still facing the pressure of steady growth during the "13th Five-Year Plan" period. The development of clean energy will become one of the main ideas for China to cope with the traditional energy shortage and pollution problems, and related inputs in the field of biomass power generation. Expected to increase significantly.
Second, the "alternative energy" development faces many uncertainties
We use biomass energy as an example to illustrate the uncertainties in the development of “alternative energyâ€.
At present, there seems to be a general consensus: biomass energy has many advantages such as renewability, cleanliness and economy. It can alleviate the shortage of traditional energy supply, optimize energy structure, guarantee national energy security, and achieve greenhouse gas. Reducing emissions, reducing smog and improving the ecological environment can also promote regional economic growth and increase farmers' income. However, with the rise of biomass energy, the problems and contradictions caused by the development of material energy are constantly exposed, and the policy ideas of generating material energy to increase the supply of alternative energy are also facing various potential risks.
Through extensive research on multinational cases, we conducted a multi-faceted assessment and analysis of the combined effects of material energy from environmental resource effects, socio-economic effects, and policy effects.
There is still considerable controversy about whether biomass energy is renewable, clean, and impacts on water resources and biodiversity:
The reproducibility of biomass energy depends on the degree of use of non-renewable energy throughout its development life cycle. Its regenerability depends largely on the resource endowment, natural conditions, economic conditions, technical level, etc. Therefore, the existing research is still inconclusive. However, many studies have shown that the wider the life cycle assessment boundary, the lower the reproducibility of biomass energy, and the biomass energy in some developing countries is even a completely non-renewable energy source;
There is still much controversy about the cleanliness of biomass. Some scholars believe that biomass energy is a reverse process of fossil energy that releases CO2 and is a clean energy source. However, there is still evidence that biomass energy is not as clean as expected. On the one hand, the biomass energy raw material planting stage will destroy carbon sinks and release carbon sequestration; on the other hand, the processing of its by-products will generate a large amount of Carbon emissions, and countries with backward technology, produce more greenhouse gases than technology developed countries; in addition, some biomass energy (such as biodiesel) can lead to more nitrogen oxide emissions. Moreover, competition between fossil energy and biomass energy will reduce fossil energy prices, thereby stimulating an increase in economic activity and leading to more pollution emissions.
The impact of biomass energy on water resources is reflected in both water consumption and water quality pollution. Some studies believe that vigorously promoting biomass energy will pose a serious threat to freshwater resources.
The development of biomass takes up space, destroys land and water bodies, and destroys biodiversity in land and water.
We conducted an analysis of the socio-economic effects of biomass energy from three aspects: the impact of material energy on income and employment, food security, and the economic cost of generating material energy. In general, the socio-economic effects of developing material energy are also uncertain, mainly reflected in the following three aspects:
On the one hand, the development of substances can increase the income of farmers in the short term, mobilize the enthusiasm of farmers to grow grain, and provide certain employment opportunities; on the other hand, the market for biomass energy is very fragile, and the production of material energy can be used for national income. And the impact of employment levels is not stable, farmers and many related economies have to bear a lot of market risks.
Although some scholars insist that they can use "marginal land" to grow energy crops, the phenomenon of biomass energy "competing with food" and "combating with food" is widespread. Many scholars insist that the occurrence of material energy will aggravate global food security. In addition, the problem of “people and cars competing for food†will turn the bread of the poor into the fuel of the rich, which will inevitably further aggravate the global food security problem. Moreover, the mainstream voice believes that the occurrence of substances can cause global food price fluctuations to rise, serious Weaken the fruits of global poverty reduction and bring more people into poverty.
Even if we only consider the economic cost of generating material energy, we cannot conclude that the material energy produced is more economical and cost-effective than traditional energy sources such as oil. The economic costs of developing biomass energy vary widely. The cost of producing biomass energy in the United States and Brazil is lower than the international oil price, which can benefit in the short term. However, in countries such as Europe, it may be unprofitable to develop material energy. For some developing countries with insufficient resource endowment or backward technology, it is likely that the occurrence of material energy is not worth the loss.
Third, the energy supply side needs reform
According to the starting point of energy supply and demand conflict resolution, energy management can be divided into Supply Side Management (SSM) and Demand Side Management (DSM). From the perspective of energy supply, supply management exerts influence on energy producers to ensure the effective supply of resources, and focuses on the supply of supply and demand contradictions on the supply of resources. The main methods of supply management are energy substitution and trade substitution: energy substitution is mainly to seek alternative energy, diversification of energy utilization; trade substitution is mainly through import energy and industrial transfer. Demand management was formally proposed by Clark Gellings in 1984. In summary, demand management refers to the comprehensive use of economic, legal, and technical measures to regulate user behavior under resource constraints, improve resource quality and utilization efficiency, and reduce economic growth. Dependence on high energy industries.
Developing countries' energy demand management faces many challenges. For many developing countries, high-energy-consuming industries are an important support for economic growth. The blind elimination or restriction will inevitably lead to insufficient supply of key industry products that determine the lifeline of the country's economy, directly affecting the development of all aspects of the country. Therefore, the transformation of energy management methods from supply management to demand management in developing countries cannot be achieved overnight, and it may take a long time to rely on supply management. However, as can be seen from our research results, the idea of ​​generating new energy to increase energy supply is indeed facing many uncertainties, and there is an urgent need for supply-side reform.
First, a systematic and scientific assessment is required in advance. The development of alternative energy sources such as biomass is a systematic project. Based on our research, we can see that alternative energy strategies such as energy generation are not a panacea. We should rationally treat the development of alternative energy sources. Each region systematically evaluates the advantages and disadvantages of alternative energy sources according to its own conditions, adapts to local conditions, makes decisions calmly and cautiously, and cannot blindly follow the trend;
Second, technology and R&D supply are first. The “cleanlinessâ€, “renewability†and “eco-friendliness†of alternative energy sources such as photovoltaics, wind power and biomass energy must be guaranteed by advanced technology. Otherwise, only clean and sustainable consumer terminals may be realized. The resource consumption and pollution discharge are left in the production process, resulting in the illusion of "resource conservation" and "environmental friendliness". Therefore, governments, institutions, and society should first increase support for new energy technologies and research and development. Due to factors such as high development costs and fluctuations in traditional energy prices, the development of alternative energy sources faces significant market risks. In order to encourage social capital to enter the technology research and development of alternative energy, on the one hand, we must improve and improve the relevant market mechanism, on the other hand, we must establish an incentive mechanism such as the quota system and other legal guarantees and subsidies to guarantee the basics of innovative capital. interest.
Again, you can’t blindly “fix your needsâ€. The development of energy supply management ideas such as biomass, solar energy and wind energy is an extensional and extensive management approach to meet demand. This approach will contribute to the energy consumption of various industries, which is not conducive to the formation of a mechanism to promote the institutional and technological innovation of high-energy industries, thereby improving energy efficiency. The most critical thing is that if you do not control energy demand, any resources are limited, and will eventually transition from relative scarcity to absolute scarcity. Since the renewable energy of alternative energy sources such as biomass is affected by many factors, it will eventually reach the limit of supply. Therefore, it is necessary to gradually improve the energy efficiency of the industry to achieve a “clean alternative†to fossil energy, promote self-renewal and transformation of various industries, improve energy efficiency in the industry, and inject long-term momentum into national economic growth.
(The author is an associate professor and doctor of the School of Economics, Peking University)
Energy is a strategic resource of the country and an important material basis for the socio-economic development of a country. In recent decades, the scarcity of traditional energy sources such as coal and oil and the environmental and climatic problems caused by the use of traditional energy have seriously hampered China's sustainable development. “Clean and replace†traditional energy sources to ensure the sustainable development of our country.
The development of clean renewable energy such as biomass energy is one of the key directions for the development of alternative energy sources in China. Since the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" in China, the state has successively promulgated the "Renewable Energy Law", "Renewable Energy Medium and Long-term Development Plan", "National Energy Science and Technology" Twelfth Five-Year Plan", and "Biomass Energy Technology Development" Five "special planning" and other laws and regulations, China is still facing the pressure of steady growth during the "13th Five-Year Plan" period. The development of clean energy will become one of the main ideas for China to cope with the traditional energy shortage and pollution problems, and related inputs in the field of biomass power generation. Expected to increase significantly.
Second, the "alternative energy" development faces many uncertainties
We use biomass energy as an example to illustrate the uncertainties in the development of “alternative energyâ€.
At present, there seems to be a general consensus: biomass energy has many advantages such as renewability, cleanliness and economy. It can alleviate the shortage of traditional energy supply, optimize energy structure, guarantee national energy security, and achieve greenhouse gas. Reducing emissions, reducing smog and improving the ecological environment can also promote regional economic growth and increase farmers' income. However, with the rise of biomass energy, the problems and contradictions caused by the development of material energy are constantly exposed, and the policy ideas of generating material energy to increase the supply of alternative energy are also facing various potential risks.
Through extensive research on multinational cases, we conducted a multi-faceted assessment and analysis of the combined effects of material energy from environmental resource effects, socio-economic effects, and policy effects.
There is still considerable controversy about whether biomass energy is renewable, clean, and impacts on water resources and biodiversity:
The reproducibility of biomass energy depends on the degree of use of non-renewable energy throughout its development life cycle. Its regenerability depends largely on the resource endowment, natural conditions, economic conditions, technical level, etc. Therefore, the existing research is still inconclusive. However, many studies have shown that the wider the life cycle assessment boundary, the lower the reproducibility of biomass energy, and the biomass energy in some developing countries is even a completely non-renewable energy source;
There is still much controversy about the cleanliness of biomass. Some scholars believe that biomass energy is a reverse process of fossil energy that releases CO2 and is a clean energy source. However, there is still evidence that biomass energy is not as clean as expected. On the one hand, the biomass energy raw material planting stage will destroy carbon sinks and release carbon sequestration; on the other hand, the processing of its by-products will generate a large amount of Carbon emissions, and countries with backward technology, produce more greenhouse gases than technology developed countries; in addition, some biomass energy (such as biodiesel) can lead to more nitrogen oxide emissions. Moreover, competition between fossil energy and biomass energy will reduce fossil energy prices, thereby stimulating an increase in economic activity and leading to more pollution emissions.
The impact of biomass energy on water resources is reflected in both water consumption and water quality pollution. Some studies believe that vigorously promoting biomass energy will pose a serious threat to freshwater resources.
The development of biomass takes up space, destroys land and water bodies, and destroys biodiversity in land and water.
We conducted an analysis of the socio-economic effects of biomass energy from three aspects: the impact of material energy on income and employment, food security, and the economic cost of generating material energy. In general, the socio-economic effects of developing material energy are also uncertain, mainly reflected in the following three aspects:
On the one hand, the development of substances can increase the income of farmers in the short term, mobilize the enthusiasm of farmers to grow grain, and provide certain employment opportunities; on the other hand, the market for biomass energy is very fragile, and the production of material energy can be used for national income. And the impact of employment levels is not stable, farmers and many related economies have to bear a lot of market risks.
Although some scholars insist that they can use "marginal land" to grow energy crops, the phenomenon of biomass energy "competing with food" and "combating with food" is widespread. Many scholars insist that the occurrence of material energy will aggravate global food security. In addition, the problem of “people and cars competing for food†will turn the bread of the poor into the fuel of the rich, which will inevitably further aggravate the global food security problem. Moreover, the mainstream voice believes that the occurrence of substances can cause global food price fluctuations to rise, serious Weaken the fruits of global poverty reduction and bring more people into poverty.
Even if we only consider the economic cost of generating material energy, we cannot conclude that the material energy produced is more economical and cost-effective than traditional energy sources such as oil. The economic costs of developing biomass energy vary widely. The cost of producing biomass energy in the United States and Brazil is lower than the international oil price, which can benefit in the short term. However, in countries such as Europe, it may be unprofitable to develop material energy. For some developing countries with insufficient resource endowment or backward technology, it is likely that the occurrence of material energy is not worth the loss.
Third, the energy supply side needs reform
According to the starting point of energy supply and demand conflict resolution, energy management can be divided into Supply Side Management (SSM) and Demand Side Management (DSM). From the perspective of energy supply, supply management exerts influence on energy producers to ensure the effective supply of resources, and focuses on the supply of supply and demand contradictions on the supply of resources. The main methods of supply management are energy substitution and trade substitution: energy substitution is mainly to seek alternative energy, diversification of energy utilization; trade substitution is mainly through import energy and industrial transfer. Demand management was formally proposed by Clark Gellings in 1984. In summary, demand management refers to the comprehensive use of economic, legal, and technical measures to regulate user behavior under resource constraints, improve resource quality and utilization efficiency, and reduce economic growth. Dependence on high energy industries.
Developing countries' energy demand management faces many challenges. For many developing countries, high-energy-consuming industries are an important support for economic growth. The blind elimination or restriction will inevitably lead to insufficient supply of key industry products that determine the lifeline of the country's economy, directly affecting the development of all aspects of the country. Therefore, the transformation of energy management methods from supply management to demand management in developing countries cannot be achieved overnight, and it may take a long time to rely on supply management. However, as can be seen from our research results, the idea of ​​generating new energy to increase energy supply is indeed facing many uncertainties, and there is an urgent need for supply-side reform.
First, a systematic and scientific assessment is required in advance. The development of alternative energy sources such as biomass is a systematic project. Based on our research, we can see that alternative energy strategies such as energy generation are not a panacea. We should rationally treat the development of alternative energy sources. Each region systematically evaluates the advantages and disadvantages of alternative energy sources according to its own conditions, adapts to local conditions, makes decisions calmly and cautiously, and cannot blindly follow the trend;
Second, technology and R&D supply are first. The “cleanlinessâ€, “renewability†and “eco-friendliness†of alternative energy sources such as photovoltaics, wind power and biomass energy must be guaranteed by advanced technology. Otherwise, only clean and sustainable consumer terminals may be realized. The resource consumption and pollution discharge are left in the production process, resulting in the illusion of "resource conservation" and "environmental friendliness". Therefore, governments, institutions, and society should first increase support for new energy technologies and research and development. Due to factors such as high development costs and fluctuations in traditional energy prices, the development of alternative energy sources faces significant market risks. In order to encourage social capital to enter the technology research and development of alternative energy, on the one hand, we must improve and improve the relevant market mechanism, on the other hand, we must establish an incentive mechanism such as the quota system and other legal guarantees and subsidies to guarantee the basics of innovative capital. interest.
Again, you can’t blindly “fix your needsâ€. The development of energy supply management ideas such as biomass, solar energy and wind energy is an extensional and extensive management approach to meet demand. This approach will contribute to the energy consumption of various industries, which is not conducive to the formation of a mechanism to promote the institutional and technological innovation of high-energy industries, thereby improving energy efficiency. The most critical thing is that if you do not control energy demand, any resources are limited, and will eventually transition from relative scarcity to absolute scarcity. Since the renewable energy of alternative energy sources such as biomass is affected by many factors, it will eventually reach the limit of supply. Therefore, it is necessary to gradually improve the energy efficiency of the industry to achieve a “clean alternative†to fossil energy, promote self-renewal and transformation of various industries, improve energy efficiency in the industry, and inject long-term momentum into national economic growth.
(The author is an associate professor and doctor of the School of Economics, Peking University)
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